Wednesday 26 March 2014

How useful is COOL for penalties?

I recently analysed 5,000 games to see how how much various SQs helped with scoring goals - here's a taster.

The following table shows number of penalties that were taken by a player with the cool SQ, and those taken by other players. Additionally I listed them according to the relative performance rating of the player taking the PK and the keeper.





COOL Scorer

Not COOL

Perf Diff Scored Missed % scored Scored Missed % scored
-10 0 2 0% 1 0 100%
-9 0 0 0% 1 1 50%
-8 0 0 0% 0 1 0%
-7 2 2 50% 1 6 14%
-6 1 1 50% 1 5 17%
-5 4 2 67% 5 5 50%
-4 4 0 100% 2 6 25%
-3 6 0 100% 5 12 29%
-2 8 0 100% 10 11 48%
-1 15 1 94% 11 9 55%
0 22 1 96% 15 7 68%
1 22 0 100% 25 5 83%
2 33 1 97% 29 12 71%
3 31 1 97% 32 11 74%
4 23 0 100% 37 4 90%
5 22 0 100% 38 1 97%
6 15 0 100% 35 1 97%
7 16 0 100% 42 2 95%
8 16 0 100% 28 0 100%
9 6 0 100% 18 1 95%
10 10 0 100% 7 1 87%
Total 256 11 96% 343 101 77%
Total +-3 Prf 137 4 97% 127 67 65%

The 2 total figures show the total of all penalties and the total of the grey area, +- 3 bars in performance, ie similar skill players.

As you can see when the PKer and the GK have similar skills a player with cool is virtually guaranteed to score, but similar players without cool only score 2/3. In fact it looks like you should choose a cool player even 7 or 8 bars weaker than another player as he is more likely to score.

I did check things from the other side - so keepers with COOL SQ. There were only 65 penalties against cool keepers in the sample data and on the whole it looked like it did actually NOTHING. More data is needed.



2 comments:

  1. Wouldn't keepers with the Lightning Reflexes or Shot Stopper SQ have an advantage over vanilla keepers here?

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  2. Aha - I knew I missed something. I did plan to do an article on the stats for the keeper and forgot. .

    Data I got showed cool did NOTHING to help keepers save penalties but the reflexes SQ (equivalent to GI on outfield player) reduced the chances significantly and the "opposite" SQ of positioning made keepers much worse at saving penalties.

    I'll write it up next week or 2.

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