Friday 28 March 2014

Choosing a freekicker

In Xpert the freekicker and goalkeeper are seen as the 2 most important players. Here I examing how much impact a freekick expert can have.  A while back the game underwent changes which mean freekicks aren't given out so easily or often now.

The following analysis comes from the game data for all games in the top 5 tiers of the super league season 31 and Major League S37 and Ultimate League S31 all of which finished recently - this is current data based on the game engine as it works now. I chose the top 5 tiers because that will exclude most unmanaged sides, or sides on really poor form etc. This is a total of 5208 matches.

How often are freekicks given?

Around 74% of free kicks are direct. I decided not to do analysis on set piece free kicks at this time as they are more complicated due to the skill of the player taking the final shot.

Over the sample of games there were 2290 set piece freekicks and 6435 direct free kicks. 1.7 per game. One day I plan on checking out affects creation of freekick chances.


How often do (direct) freekicks go in?

I checked all matches to see how many freekicks were awarded, how many went in. I then plotted the incidence of scoring a goal against the difference in performance between the player taking the FK and the keeper.


NOTE:
This data is based on Direct Freekicks only.
This data is for players who have the FK SQ



Perf Difference Scored Missed Percent
FKer v Keeper






-10 0 13 0%
-9 0 13 0%
-8 0 34 0%
-7 1 43 2%
-6 1 89 1%
-5 3 130 2%
-4 7 161 4%
-3 9 193 4%
-2 19 259 7%
-1 26 281 8%
0 40 389 9%
1 63 345 15%
2 98 373 21%
3 102 339 23%
4 137 326 30%
5 141 229 38%
6 141 174 45%
7 130 159 45%
8 88 118 43%
9 88 66 57%
10 60 36 62%
Total 1154 3770 23%

As you can see if your FKer is less skilled (or plays to less bars) than the defending keeeper there is almost no chance of a direct freekick going in. 

I did try to plot similar data for players with shooting power and vanilla players but I don't have enough sample data to get accurate figures. What I did do is band the data to get the chart below.


Perf Diff FK SP Vanilla
0-3 17% 15% 9%
4-7 38% 32% 8%


As you can see the difference between Free Kick and Shooting Power SQs isn't huge, and it would seem that if you have 2 more bars on a player with shooting power that is a better option - especially if the FKer is less skilled than the keeper.

Vanilla players don't make great FKers - but if you have a high skilled one it will be better than a low skilled FKer.


Set piece Freekicks

NOTE: This was based on the Super & Major leagu data only and i'm too lazy to redo the data at the moment.

With set piece freekicks there was a lot less data and as they are a less significant part of the game I need to present the conclusions differently.

The following table shows the distribution of freekicks according to FKer SQ. Players with Shooting Power have a slightly higher chance of taking direct freekicks and vanilla players almost always do variations (I wonder if this is a bug in the code?)


Direct Set Piece % Direct
Freekick 3216 660 83%
Shooting Power 562 99 85%
Vanilla 311 643 33%


Calculating the conversion rate for set piece freekicks is complicated as it appears both the player taking the freekick and the player having the shot are considered, and if either is poor then the chance seems unlikely to go in. As a rule conversion of set piece freekicks seems slightly lower than for direct freekicks.


Who makes the best freekickers?


Here's what the rules say about the freekick SQ:

A player with this symbol is a specialist in taking freekicks. Keep in mind though that how good a player is in taking freekicks also depends a lot on his skill level. This means that a player with this quality but with low skill will not be very good in taking freekicks, This quality however makes a player twice as good on freekicks compared to a player of equal skill but without this quality. 

The key factor with players scoring from freekicks is the player's skill relative to the defending team's goalkeeper skill and I believe this "fact" to be misleading at best. Certainly a 10 skill freekicker will virtually never score against a 15 skill keeper, and there are many teams who just use their strongest player with Shooting Power or no SQs as a freekick taker and do equally as well.

The best player to choose obviously depends on your league and what you need. Conidering the above data I would say there is no point ever buying an average free kicker - he needs to be special if you are to pay significantly extra for the SQ, and overall a player with Shooting Power may be a better investment. 

Wednesday 26 March 2014

How useful is COOL for penalties?

I recently analysed 5,000 games to see how how much various SQs helped with scoring goals - here's a taster.

The following table shows number of penalties that were taken by a player with the cool SQ, and those taken by other players. Additionally I listed them according to the relative performance rating of the player taking the PK and the keeper.





COOL Scorer

Not COOL

Perf Diff Scored Missed % scored Scored Missed % scored
-10 0 2 0% 1 0 100%
-9 0 0 0% 1 1 50%
-8 0 0 0% 0 1 0%
-7 2 2 50% 1 6 14%
-6 1 1 50% 1 5 17%
-5 4 2 67% 5 5 50%
-4 4 0 100% 2 6 25%
-3 6 0 100% 5 12 29%
-2 8 0 100% 10 11 48%
-1 15 1 94% 11 9 55%
0 22 1 96% 15 7 68%
1 22 0 100% 25 5 83%
2 33 1 97% 29 12 71%
3 31 1 97% 32 11 74%
4 23 0 100% 37 4 90%
5 22 0 100% 38 1 97%
6 15 0 100% 35 1 97%
7 16 0 100% 42 2 95%
8 16 0 100% 28 0 100%
9 6 0 100% 18 1 95%
10 10 0 100% 7 1 87%
Total 256 11 96% 343 101 77%
Total +-3 Prf 137 4 97% 127 67 65%

The 2 total figures show the total of all penalties and the total of the grey area, +- 3 bars in performance, ie similar skill players.

As you can see when the PKer and the GK have similar skills a player with cool is virtually guaranteed to score, but similar players without cool only score 2/3. In fact it looks like you should choose a cool player even 7 or 8 bars weaker than another player as he is more likely to score.

I did check things from the other side - so keepers with COOL SQ. There were only 65 penalties against cool keepers in the sample data and on the whole it looked like it did actually NOTHING. More data is needed.



Friday 21 March 2014

Official Leagues


Xpert leagues run on a 15 week cycle, so each season will start 15 weeks to the day after the previous season. The following table shows the league start dates relative to a "baseline" of the Super League start date.


League                                   Start Day Offset        Week Offset
Super League00
Major League30
Ultimate League60
League of Champs101
Xtreme League142
Golden League193
Final League243
Xpert League284
Power League305
Hattrick League325
Classic League335
Master League406
Dream League548
XCL578
Euro League588
Xpert International 628
Pro League8311


As you can see the start dates aren't staggered very well and this can ave a massive effect on the game.


Best Leagues


The Pro League is often regarded as the best league for buying and selling players. There is a 3 week gap between the Xpert International league and the Pro League starting. This means the Pro League has very little competition for buying players when its season starts as all the other seasons are several weeks underway at that time and prices are often lower than at other times.

The Pro League also benefits for selling players with a cluister of leagues starting when the Pro is 3+ weeks into the season - making the Pro players good prospects for being undereval as they can have several games by that stage.

The Dream League lives up to its name as far as the XCL is concerned. Due to the dates it is the only league that doesn't have a change report during the whole XCL campaign - which is a great advantage.

The Super League has minimal competition for players - for 3 days - so isn't as bad as most other leagues.


Worst Leagues


Pretty much all the other leagues are bad fo buying/selling with lots of competition for buying. The worst cluster is probably the Final, Xpert, Power, Hattrick & Classic Leagues which all start incredibly close to oneanother.


Swedish Leagues

The "Swedish Leagues" were the first 8 xpert leagues created and were exclusively for Swedish players for a while. Around 2 years later a further 8 Xpert leagues were created and these are often termed the "European Leagues".

The standard of teams in the Swedish leagues is generally higher and this has attracted many of the better managers when stronger teams became available in the job centre.

This is the list of Swedish Leagues:

  • Major League
  • League of Champs
  • Xtreme League
  • Final League
  • Xpert League
  • Hattrick League
  • Euro League
  • Xpert International




Tuesday 18 March 2014

Xpert Eleven Book Published



A new book on Xpert Eleven has just been published, called Xpert Eleven tips, tricks and secrets: The unofficial insider’s Guide to winning’. It is available from the Amazon website as a kindle, ebook or in physical format. The author goes by the name The Secret Fantasy Footballer and they have been tracked down and interviewed.

My introduction to Xpert eleven


I joined as part of a newly set up private league, consisting of a bunch of guys who played football together. I took to it like a duck to water, got hold of Leftblank’s guide and after a couple of seasons in that league began to make sense of all the tactics and development strategies. That was about four years, joining just after the Development measure was changed from AF to DV.

Learning from the forums.


The co-incidence of my joining at the same time as the introduction of DV has more significance than was obvious at the time, and is perhaps the genesis of why I decided to do the guide. The change created a lot of confusion about the site at the same time I was trying to pick up the basics. This made it difficult to learn because when development came up in the forums the thread combusted into ‘it was better before’ outbursts.

This caused confusion as I had no idea what the previous development was, and whether it was better or worse was irrelevant to what was needed now – some clear advice/instruction on how to develop my players. It also meant that loads of old advice, both on the forums, in Xpert Daily articles/interviews and in Leftblank’s guide – all development stuff there was now obsolete, or was it? I had no way of knowing.

My way out of this confusion was writing my own notes on this, researching whatever I could get my hands on and combining it. From those early days I’ve continued to do this on areas of the game that I want to learn more about. After four years these notes and writings are scattered about the place, and I decided to do some cyber-spring cleaning and put them all in one document.


Decision to publish


Whilst sitting in a pub with a friend I checked an Xpert Eleven match on my phone. He was interested, I explained a little about the game and a lot about my notes and ideas to compile them together. The friend then suggested I send him this finished document and he’d look into publishing it as an ebook, something he’d just started doing and experimenting with.

With this development I asked permission from people whose words of wisdom were in the book. There is a sense of community between managers in the game, as shown by the way veterans give out loads of information and advice on the forums on a daily basis. Everyone I contacted was encouraging about the project and gave permission for their words to be used.

When my friend got the document he was knocked out by it, and decided it had to be a physical book as well. And so it was so.


How long did it take?


It took longer than expected to put it all together, a few months. One of the things that took time was going into the forums and the rules to check for accuracy, or to see if I could find why I’d written something down. Often I found more than I bargained for, great debates or discussions about obscure facets to the game new to me.

Special Qualities of the players was an area that really opened up when researching; fascinating stuff about injuries, and the lack of, to fragile players and similarly how little negative affect ‘mouthy’ has in regards to bookings. Managers have built up big databases of match-facts on areas such as these, and they found their way into the Guide - referencing the originator of the findings where possible.

Toward the end I was proof reading printed pages on buses, then getting home writing more till the early hours. Finally there was a point where the proof-reading caught up with the writing and that was that. The last bit, ‘The Long Game’ was planned to be longer, but when it came to it I thought everything had been said in the journey through the book to this point.

Sure a lot of the information in the book is available with a bit (a lot) of digging around the forum, but the grouping of all this information together in one handy reference guide gives it value.

Feedback


Feedback from buyers has been very positive, experienced players have learned things they never knew while less newer players are knocked out by the stuff on how to set tactics.


Guide contents and Iwe’s forum posts


The guide is divided into two sections and ended up 191 pages long. The first is called ‘First Half: Win The Match’ as it’s about tactics, players and training/development to help, uh, win matches. The second section is about team building and money management, the longer-term stuff, and is called ‘Second Half: Win the Game’.

Originally it stated with ‘Win The Game’ and it was going to be written in a more ‘high-powered’ motivational book approach but I couldn’t keep that up! There are fragments of that motivational-speak, for that reason, at the start of the Second section. Then I reversed the sections to address from the start the most common cry from the forums, “why did I lose this match?’ The answer almost always is tactical choices, so look at them first.

There’s an appendix consisting of two long posts from the forum made by Iwe in 2005 and 2007 which discuss and explain how player form is calculated and the reasons it rises and falls. This is included because whenever Xpert experts provide explanations of form on the site they inevitably refer back to these posts.

One of the nuggets of information I discovered was another post by Iwe, in the Swedish forum, about the tactical side of Xpert Eleven. This is reproduced and discussed in the guide but here’s a bit of it now, “there are many more dimensions in the tactical game…Hard Guard [Tightly Mark] and defense strategy are just two of about 25-30 points as the tactical game consists of. Some are more important than others and some are more subtle than others. And most of it is dependent on environmental factors. That is, a tactic that can be great if so and so is satisfied otherwise it’s marginally good.

Once you think you’ve learned everything about the game, Iwe’s posts will give you more. I’m pleased Iwe gave his permission to use these and any of his words I wanted because they are the crux of the game and a comprehensive collection like this would be incomplete without them. Iwe was very supportive of this guide by the way, which helped a great deal.

Translations/follow ups


During the writing I tried to keep the writing bland, editing out any sayings, adages and idioms particular to the English language: I think ‘rule of thumb’ is the only that stayed in. The reason for this is to make it easier to be read by people who don’t have English as their first language, and also to make it easier to be translated. So right from the start foreign language versions have been considered; however no one has come forward to do this yet.

Follow ups are inevitable, but it what form it’s hard to say at the moment. I think it depends on which way the game develops and what players want from a guide.

There’s a Secret Fantasy Footballer blog with ruminations on aspects of the game that have either occurred since the publication or were too abstract/wishywashy to fit into it. A few days ago I posted about the unexpected difficulties in team building when you get emotionally attached to your players so can’t sell them when you should.

Developments and getting new managers


The merging of the Private League transfer markets has not so much shifted the goal posts as created a whole new playing field. Market prices, player values and Special Qualities are all being re-assessed and finding new levels; this has created an interest in those areas that maybe wasn’t so intense for many Private League game-players before.

Private Leagues are one gateway into the game, many people only stay in one private league never to discover the rest of the Xpert Eleven world. So mixing up their transfer-market - their only link to outside of their private league is interesting. I’d love to see this developed further, and be able to trace the player to their current club as can be done in the Official Leagues.

Facebook is the other gateway into Xpert Eleven; and it seems many join this way, get given an official team but quickly give up. Personally I think these new managers are given teams too far up the leagues; they are suddenly playing against experienced managers whilst trying to understand the basics. They get thrashed a few times, think they are no good and leave in frustration.

If only there was someway to reach these facebook entrants and show them the basics of the game in an easy to use format…like an ebook guide for instance. Which takes me back to the pub in Brighton when we discussed that very idea. The problem now the guide is published is reaching those players.

The future of Xpert Eleven


As it says in the conclusion of the Guide, when Iwe and his crew developed Xpert Eleven in 2003 they couldn’t have imagined people playing it over ten years later, and on such a wide array of devices which didn’t even exist back then. So trying to guess how it will change in the future isn’t something I often do – I suppose I’d like to see team movements between private leagues and more transparency in their transfer-markets, more logic to the Youth Academy and a lessening of the five-man midfield dominance.

But as even minor changes can have a drastic impact in a computer-based game I’m just happy when I log in that Xpert Eleven is still there, and the site hasn’t closed down.


Additional Resources


Where to get the book
The Secret Fantasy Footballer blog
Youtube Interview


For further information and updates:

On the facebook search on there for ‘Xpert Eleven tips tricks and secrets’ to locate the page

Friday 14 March 2014

Tips for beginners

here are some basic tips for beginning managers, especially if they have a starting team.


Manage your finances 

Never run out of cash. Having to choose which player to train because you can't train everyone is severely detrimental to the future of your team. If this means you have to sell your best player it is usually worth it for the future of the whole team.


Have a plan

Focus on key players for training, don't waste resources on rubbish. If your starting team has 27/7 or similar players either they should be gone within a season so there's no point wasting money training them to get their form up. Even if they are low form and you need to play them then do so.

There are articles here on team building so from the outset you need to make a rough idea of the side you plan to have at the end of the first season and weed out the rubbish.


Don't go wild at the start. if you take over a team with lots of money don't spend it all before you know what's what.  if you are a new manager get past a CR before doing anything adventurous - that way you can see how players develop and will have more time to appreciate prices. Everybody makes mistakes they regret their first few months.


Transfer market basics

The transfer market is dynamic like ebay, so prices go up until the player is sold. Generally speaking you should always evaluate players before buying and if they are older players you certainly want to keep the teamwork good. Youths are less important in this regard as they have more time to converge with your team. typically it might take 4-5 seasons for a youngster to go from poor to good.

Be especially wary of divas - it's a great SQ if the teamwork is good but awful if it isn't.

One anomaly of the transfer market is you can reduce your bid - but only as far as the current bidding level. EG if a player is listed at 1m, you bid 5m and the current bidding goes up to 1.5m then you can reduce your bid to 1.5m (or higher) if you wish.


Youth Academy

The Youth Acedemy can provide a valuable alternative to the transfer market but it can easily sap all your funds. It is always worth investing a minimal 50k in the YA but increase this sparingly over time.


Match tactics

When starting out I would suggest sticking to tried and tested formations and playing styles. 451, 352 and 442 are the safest formations to play. Avoid long balls until you have got used to things. You should probably always use pressure. Also read my post on playing styles as you are more likely to drop points playing too offensively than too defensively. A minimal win bonus of 50k is a must but avoid spending more til you have a feel for things and more funds available.


How to win at Xpert Eleven

Simply put there are 2 areas in Xpert Eleven that you need to master.

You need to understand the best ways of making money and building your team so you can have one of the strongest teams in your league.

You need to learn about tactics - what works for you and the teams you build so you can get the maximum potential out of those team.


Saturday 8 March 2014

Press Release Generator

NEWS - CR calc is now working again.


X11 Press Release Generator v1.31 20/4/14


How to use

Paste in or enter your manager name, your team and an opponent's team. You can also add a player from your team, or leave it blank if you can't be bothered.
Press the button according to the result of the match to generate a press release.
Copy and paste the text from the dialogue box into the X11 press release, and add a headline of your choice.
Sit back and wait for the kudos to roll in...

Looks like there are a few issues with strange characters - I'll try and get them sorted ASAP.
Manager name
Team
Opponent
Player (optional)

For female managers or teams in the Ladies League, press the respective button after the PR is generated to convert any gender specific phrases.