Integrating defence & keeper

Traditional X11 wisdom dictates that the freekicker and the goal keeper are the most important players in the team. Here I'm going to post some thoughts on goalkeepers.

Basics

Keepers all have a save percentage stat, so you can easily check how successful a keeper has been during his career. One thing you have probably noticed is the better keepers don't seem to have massively amazing save percentages. Usually just a few points better than lesser keepers.

Generally speaking a bar of skill translates to about a 3% difference in save percentage. If all the players in both teams are of similar skill levels then 30-35% conversion rate might be typical, so around 65-70% saved. Dropping 2-3 bars on your keeper skill could realistically only be 1-2 goals a season - not necessarily something to get too worked up about.

But it's not that simple....

In the X11 team ratings there is a rating for the defense as a whole but the keeper isn't separated from this, and it appears X11 does treat the keeper and defence as a single unit, and my recent experiences suggest a really strong defender could be more important than a really strong keeper. Part of this is the reduction in chances a stronger defender will give but I also think defenders affect the quality of chances, so the liklihood they will score.

Recently I had a team who were bringing on a youth keeper, 18/5. The overall team strength was around 12/13 bars which was slightly good for the division but nothing special. He ended the season with a save percentage of 65%, which is pretty stunning for a youth keeper. I think the relative strength of the defence helped make the chances less potent somehow.

The team conceded 11 goals in 14 games, but he missed a game where I lost 5-0 (allrounder in goal) so his record was 6 goals conceded in 13 league games. I think big part of keeping the goal count low was  adjusting the style of play to suit the unusual circumstances of a youth keeper.

In most games I dropped the aggression down a notch on how I would usually play a notch less offensive than I usually do (so normal instead of offensive etc). Additionally I tended to play offside traps on marginal referees (S4/S5) in the belief reducing chances was more significant than conversion rate against such a weak keeper. I also didn't cheat in most games where cheating would usually be the case. There's scope for missing out on freekicks, but if you are carrying a very weak keeper I would say  conceding is much more of a risk.

2 of my other sides have started out as long term projects but reached the top as the keeper was on his way out. One was replaced with a 21/10 and the other with a 26/13 - and both sides went on to win the title despite having a disproportionately weak keeper.

A strong keeper is incredibly important for games where free kicks are likely to be significant but otherwise a very strong defender may be a better investment and is certainly a strategy worth testing.