451 "without forwards"

There are a number of experimental team doing the rounds at the moment which are achieving a degree of success - here I look at one of them.

451 with weak forwards

This works on the premise that a strong defence/midfield is the most important part of the team and exploits the 2WAA rule and forward farming to keep the mid/defence stronger than the opposition.

The basic premise is a normal squad designed for 451 but all forward players are farms - 17/4, 16/3 or similar. 

The first advantage of this is 2-3 farm players can generate millions each season which can be used to invest in higher skilled players in other areas. Example an extra 5m from farming each season means you are buying a 17/5 instead of a 17/4 - or a 30/16 instead of a 30/14. 

The second advantage of this approach is that you significantly reduce the age of the attacking part of your team. This lets you play some older players in midfield which can be more skillful and cheaper to buy than youngsters, or just have your midfield performing better because their average age is under 29 rather than over.

Does it work?

Several managers play in this way and have had a degree of success at the highest level. Jesus1983 was previously ranked #1 in the world and played with a 17/4 forward in the XCL final and has adapted his side to this way of playing. Freddy9adu won the major league and the cup and reached the XCL semi final playing predominantly with 16/3 forwards. I reached the XCL QF playing this way after winning the Hattrick cup and have had success in several private leagues including the prestigious Club24.

In Xpert chances are split roughly in a ratio of 1:2:4 between defence, midfield and attack, With a 451 formation your forward will get around 20% of a teams chances (including set pieces), and conversion of those chances will probably be about half. Having a stronger mid will likely give you more than 10% more chances and reduce opposition chances.

I've been playing this way for around 3 years and I think the best thing it gives is scope to maintain the team constantly without having to do rebuilds every few seasons. I much prefer a team that is always challenging rather than one that is occasionally on hiatus in the lower divisions.