The following table shows penalties against keepers with and without the cool SQ (those without can have any other SQs). The first column is the difference in performance (not skill) of the player taking the penalty and the keeper. The bottom 2 lines are total for all penalties and total for situations where the keeper and penalty taker seem to be of similar skill (the greyed area)
| Cool Keeper | No Cool | |||||
| Perf Diff | Scored | Missed | Scored | Missed | ||
| -10 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| -9 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| -8 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| -7 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2 | 8 | 20% |
| -6 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 6 | 25% |
| -5 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 8 | 7 | 53% |
| -4 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 5 | 5 | 50% |
| -3 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 9 | 10 | 47% |
| -2 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 16 | 10 | 62% |
| -1 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 24 | 9 | 73% |
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 34 | 6 | 85% |
| 1 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 45 | 4 | 92% |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 56 | 13 | 81% |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | 100% | 53 | 12 | 82% |
| 4 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 54 | 4 | 93% |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 55 | 1 | 98% |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 48 | 1 | 98% |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 56 | 2 | 97% |
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 39 | 0 | 100% |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 22 | 0 | 100% |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 15 | 0 | 100% |
| Total | 54 | 11 | 83% | 545 | 101 | 84% |
| Tot -3 to +4 | 33 | 7 | 82% | 291 | 68 | 81% |
Overall there are 65 penalties against keepers with cool , and 83% are scored. 646 against other keepers - and 84% score. The situation is similar for the players of similar skill - and the conclusion is cool doesn't seem to do anything to help keepers save penalties.
I then checked other SQs and most of them (king of the air, breakaways, intelligent) looked similar to above. The other 2 SQs seemed very different - see the following table. The left hand side is for reflex SQ, right hand side for Positioning SQ.
| Reflex SQ | Position SQ | |||||
| Perf Diff | Scored | Missed | Scored | Missed | ||
| -10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 50 |
| -6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| -5 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| -4 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 50 |
| -3 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 50 |
| -2 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 83 |
| -1 | 3 | 1 | 60 | 5 | 0 | 83 |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 71 |
| 1 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 90 |
| 2 | 5 | 1 | 71 | 10 | 0 | 90 |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 85 |
| 4 | 6 | 1 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 83 |
| 5 | 9 | 0 | 90 | 4 | 0 | 80 |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 8 | 0 | 88 |
| 7 | 12 | 0 | 92 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 8 | 7 | 0 | 87 | 7 | 0 | 87 |
| 9 | 4 | 0 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 75 |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | 75 | 2 | 0 | 66 |
| Total | 68 | 15 | 82% | 97 | 7 | 93% |
| Tot -3 to +4 | 29 | 13 | 69% | 63 | 4 | 94% |
The overall result for reflexes seems skewed because there are a lot of penalties by relatively high skilled kickers but looking at players of similar skill only 69% are scored - compared to a typical 83%. SQs often work as opposites so positioning has the opposite bonuses and penalties to reflexes and that us very apparent in this table. Keepers with positioning almost never save penalties.
Sample size & conclusion
I think a sample of around 700 penalties overall is reasonable to show the conversion rate is around 84%. For specific SQs the sample sizes are small but I would say in all instances they are probably adequate enough to show what is actually happening. I had planned to collect more data but - never happened.
It seems very much like the cool SQ does nothing to help saving penalties and that reflexes is the SQ to have in this situation - and positioning is the kiss of death. The fact that positioning has the opposite effect is logical from how X11 SQs work but does beg the question why are the rules wrong?
You need to change the end of the third last paragraph. to say positioning rather than reflexes.
ReplyDeleteAlso, how do you get so much match info? Have you written some scripts to pull down the data? Or are there tools for that? At the minute, I'm writing some code to start to pull data down from the website, but it could take a while to get much useful data out of it.