How FT & form work

People often wonder how the form can seem to twist and turn in an unfathomable way - here's an attempt at exposing why.

The first graph is a simple sine wave type graph. Imagine that is your underlying form, bouncing up and down in a reasonably ordered manner.

Player's form will be adjusted maybe 1-2 bars based on performance of the team section they are in and how they performed during games. This 2nd graph is a series of random changes meant to represent what happens when you play games. Mostly they are small changes between +-1.

If we overlay these 2 sets of data we get graph 3. The general trend is the same as graph 1 but at specific points it looks different. EG point 5-6 is flat and looks like the form has stopped going up, but this is caused by a bad performance. Points 8-10 show the same misrepresentation. Conversely point 11 shows a marked increase at exactly the point when form begins to drop. Also note that as the effect of performance is relatively small players form can still go up after a bad performance and vice versa.

What you see with the X11 VIP graph is something akin to graph 3. The secret to preemptive training is taking this graph, guessing the effect of the match (the data from graph 2) and unpicking them and enabling you to see the data in graph 1.